September 8, 2026
Bonus Content: Gold Holds Near $4,390 as China Accelerates Its Buying
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Gold Holds Near $4,390 as China Accelerates Its Buying
Gold is trading near $4,390 this morning, caught between two forces pulling in opposite directions. On one side, a stronger-than-expected August payrolls report revived Fed rate-hike bets and sent spot gold down as much as 2.4% on Friday, extending losses into Monday before the metal steadied. On the other, Beijing just reported its largest single-month gold purchase in nearly three years.
What the PBoC Actually Did
China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange confirmed on September 7 that the People’s Bank of China added 650,000 troy ounces in August, pushing total holdings to 76.73 million fine troy ounces, roughly 2,387 metric tons. That extends the buying streak to 22 consecutive months, the longest run on record. The August addition topped July’s 640,000-ounce purchase, which had itself been the largest since October 2023. Earlier in the year, the monthly figure was just 160,000 ounces in March; the pace has now quadrupled.
China’s gold reserves are now valued at $350.08 billion, up from $306.35 billion at the end of July. Gold still accounts for less than 10% of total official Chinese reserves. That gap relative to Western central banks, which typically hold gold at roughly 70% of reserves, is a structural argument for continued accumulation that does not depend on near-term price levels.
Why the Price Dipped Anyway
August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000, roughly triple the 53,000 economists expected, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. That single number pushed market-implied September hike odds back toward 60%, reversing a brief retreat that followed dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller on September 3. When Waller signaled a preference for holding rates, gold jumped above $4,480 in a single session. The reversal since then illustrates exactly how binary this trade is ahead of the Fed’s September 16 decision.
Higher bond yields are the short-term headwind. Gold pays nothing, so rising opportunity cost bites when real yields move. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.7%, a level that kept pressure on bullion even as the PBoC data landed.
Stocks in Focus
- GLD (SPDR Gold Shares): The ETF tracks spot closely and is the most liquid expression of this trade for equity accounts. Watch for volume patterns at the open relative to Friday’s sell-off session.
- NEM (Newmont): Gold miners carry operational leverage to the metal. Newmont has been among the leaders when gold recovers; it also amplifies drawdowns. The stock’s reaction to today’s open will signal whether institutional money is treating this dip as a discount or a warning.
- AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines): Has shown stronger relative strength than peers during 2026’s volatile stretches. A hold above recent support while spot gold consolidates would be a constructive sign.
What to Watch This Week
The August CPI print on September 11 is the last major data point before the Fed meets. If inflation surprises to the downside, hike odds could collapse as quickly as they built, and gold could recapture the $4,480s within hours. If CPI runs hot, the post-jobs low becomes the level to defend. Silver, trading near $66.30, tends to move faster in both directions and is worth monitoring as a leading indicator of sentiment shifts in the metals complex.
The Cheat Sheet
- Top Theme: Official accumulation accelerating while rate-hike odds compress near-term price.
- Stock to Watch: NEM. Miner leverage to gold means outsized moves if CPI tilts the rate path.
- Sector to Watch: Materials, specifically gold miners, given the binary setup ahead of September 16.
- Biggest Risk: A hot August CPI reading on Friday pushes hike odds above 65% and gold back toward the post-jobs low.
- Biggest Opportunity: Soft CPI restores the Waller-driven bid; gold closes the gap toward $4,500 in one session.
- One Thing to Remember: The PBoC does not buy gold as a rate trade. Twenty-two straight months of purchases running through every price cycle tells you the sovereign demand floor is structural, not tactical.
