September 12, 2026
The White House still has no decision on refined copper tariffs, and that uncertainty is now the only price that matters.
Copper spent the week pulling off one of the more violent round trips in recent commodity memory. Benchmark three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange surged to an all-time high of $14,533 a ton on September 7, powered by weeks of anticipation that President Trump would expand US tariffs to imports of refined metal. Then, on Thursday, a single Reuters report erased most of the rally before the close.
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The White House, sources told Reuters, has not yet made a decision on refined copper tariffs, with officials weighing concerns that higher prices could raise manufacturing costs against the potential benefits of encouraging more domestic mining. The hesitation comes as the administration is increasingly focused on affordability ahead of November’s midterm elections. That political calculus matters as much as any chart level heading into Monday.
Where Copper Sits
COMEX copper futures fell to $6.45 a pound on Thursday after the tariff-backtrack reports, down sharply from the prior session’s record highs. The result was that copper snapped a 10-week winning streak, with three-month LME futures down about 1% for the week after falling more than 4% from the peak. They recovered slightly Friday, trading up 0.26% to $14,271 a metric ton.
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$6.45 is the number to have on your screen Monday. A confirmed tariff announcement pulls the metal back toward the record; a formal exemption of refined copper from new duties opens the door to a deeper retracement. A confirmed tariff on refined copper imports would likely reignite the rally, while a formal decision to exempt refined copper from new duties would expose prices to a deeper retracement.
The Policy Mechanics
Effective April 6, 2026, Trump imposed a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products and 25% on copper-intensive derivatives. Refined copper, such as cathodes, was never included. The Commerce Secretary was required to provide an update by June 30, 2026, so the President could determine whether a phased universal import duty of 15% starting January 1, 2027, and 30% starting January 1, 2028, is warranted. The Commerce Department met that deadline. The June deadline has passed, and a White House official confirmed Commerce provided its update to Trump by that date, but offered no indication of what the recommendation contained or when a decision might follow.
The metal had surged to record highs as traders redirected shipments to US warehouses to capitalize on tariff-driven gains in local prices, tightening global supplies, amid ongoing shortages of sulfuric acid for major copper refiners worldwide. Mined supply has also weakened, with Codelco and Freeport-McMoRan posting double-digit production declines, and the International Copper Study Group pointing to a 1.1% drop in global output in the first half of the year.
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Stocks in Focus: FCX, SCCO, TECK
Copper producers led a sector-wide reversal on September 10: Freeport-McMoRan fell 6.59% to $71.21 and Teck Resources dropped 6.31% to $65.90, after the Reuters report removed the policy assumption traders had built into North American copper equities. Despite Thursday’s slide, FCX, SCCO, and TECK remain up 40%, 42%, and 36% year to date, so the longer trend has not broken.
Freeport carries an additional operational overhang from the September 2025 mud-rush at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, with the flagship operation continuing to run below full capacity through the second half of 2026. Southern Copper leans on a deep growth pipeline through Peruvian and Mexican projects including Tía María and Michiquillay, while Teck is midway through a pending combination with Anglo American targeting $800 million in annual pre-tax synergies. All three, however, trade off the same copper price curve, so a same-day reset of the metal drags them together regardless of company-specific factors.
The Cheat Sheet
- Top Theme: Copper is a binary trade until Washington speaks. Every tick reflects the market’s evolving probability of a refined-metal tariff, not underlying fundamentals.
- Stock to Watch: FCX. Most copper-levered US name, highest beta to any tariff announcement, and still 40% higher year to date, meaning profit-taking risk is real.
- Sector to Watch: Materials. Gold held near $4,400 an ounce while silver consolidated within its recent range, confirming that copper’s decline has not yet turned into a broad metals selloff. If copper slides further Monday, watch for contagion into silver and diversified miners.
- Biggest Risk: The market had been priced for perfection: record-high prices, unresolved tariff policy, and a Chinese demand cycle that has yet to deliver peak-season acceleration. The path of least resistance has shifted lower until either Beijing confirms a demand acceleration or Washington finalizes its copper tariff framework.
- Biggest Opportunity: A tariff confirmation, even a phased one starting at 15% in 2027, re-anchors the bull case for FCX, SCCO, and TECK at levels 6-8% below last week’s highs.
- One Thing to Remember: The White House comments suggest tariffs are not a foregone conclusion, despite the market’s prior assumption that the US would extend existing duties to refined copper. Trade the policy, not the metal’s history.
