(Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday left its global growth outlook unchanged for this year as the “remarkable strength” of the U.S. economy counterbalanced weaker forecasts for China and the euro area. Following is a summary of the estimates by selected countries and regions and the change from prior IMF forecasts.
2023 estimates October vs prior estimates
October July April January vs July vs April vs January
World 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.9 0.0 0.2 0.1
United 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.5 0.7
States
Euro Area 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.0
Germany -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
France 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.3
Italy 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.1
Spain 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.1 0.0 1.0 1.4
Japan 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.8 0.6 0.7 0.2
United 0.5 0.4 -0.3 -0.6 0.1 0.8 1.1
Kingdom
Canada 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2
Emerging 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Markets
China 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
India 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.1 0.2 0.4 0.2
Russia 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.9
Brazil 3.1 2.1 0.9 1.2 1.0 2.2 1.9
Mexico 3.2 2.6 1.8 1.7 0.6 1.4 1.5
Saudi 0.8 1.9 3.1 2.6 -1.1 -2.3 -1.8
Arabia
Nigeria 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
South 0.9 0.3 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.8 -0.3
Africa
2024 estimates October vs prior estimates
October July April January vs July vs April vs January
World 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
United 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5
States
Euro Area 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4
Germany 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5
France 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 -0.3
Italy 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2
Spain 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7
Japan 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
United 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3
Kingdom
Canada 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.1
Emerging 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
Markets
China 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
India 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.8 0.0 0.0 -0.5
Russia 1.1 1.3 1.3 2.1 -0.2 -0.2 -1.0
Brazil 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Mexico 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Saudi 4.0 2.8 3.1 3.4 1.2 0.9 0.6
Arabia
Nigeria 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 0.1 0.1 0.2
South 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.5
Africa
Notes:
Figures in the annual estimates columns are annual percentage change in GDP.
Figures in the change columns are the net difference in percentage points of October’s forecast vs prior forecasts.
(Reporting By Dan Burns; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
