ROME, Dec 13 (Reuters) – Italian industrial output fell more than expected in October after plunging the month before, data showed on Tuesday getting the fourth quarter off to a bad start and fueling recession fears.
Industrial output in the euro zone’s third largest economy dropped 1.0% in October from September, national statistics bureau ISTAT reported.
A Reuters survey of 14 analysts had pointed to a 0.4% decline.
September’s data was revised marginally to show a 1.7% month-on-month fall, originally reported at -1.8%.
On a work-day adjusted year-on-year basis, output was down 1.6% in October, following an unrevised 0.5% fall in September.
However, in the three months to October, it was still up 0.3% compared with the May-to-July period, ISTAT said.
Production in October declined from the month before for consumer goods, intermediate goods and energy products, while investment goods showed an increase.
Italian gross domestic product grew 0.5% in the third quarter from the previous three months due to strong domestic demand, but the Treasury has forecast GDP contractions in the current quarter and the first quarter of next year, posing a tough challenge for the country’s new rightist Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who took office in October.
Her government forecasts a growth rate of 3.7% this year, slowing sharply to 0.6% in 2023. The estimate for next year is more upbeat than those of most independent forecasters.
ISTAT gave the following details.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION OCT SEPT AUG
Mth/mth pct change (adjusted) -1.0 -1.7r 2.2r
Yr/yr pct change (adjusted) -1.6 -0.5 2.9
Yr/yr pct change (unadjusted) -1.6 -0.4r 2.8
NOTE: BASE 2015=100.
ISTATÂ provided the following breakdown by broad product group in October: adjusted month-on-month percent change
Consumer goods -3.0
Investment goods 0.2
Intermediate goods -0.1
Energy goods -1.2
((Gavin Jones, Rome newsroom [email protected]))
Keywords: ITALY ECONOMY/OUTPUT