Trading Cheat Sheet – APP (NASDAQ)

• Ticker: NASDAQ: APP | S&P 500 member since September 22, 2025
• Current Setup: 65% off March 30 pivot low | RSI near 69 | All SMAs bullish | TradingView: Strong Buy
• 52-Week Range: $320.00 to $742.11
• Key Support: $587.81 / $534.99 / $479.20
• Key Resistance: $648.87 / $687.38 / $718.54 / all-time high zone near $742
• Primary Catalyst: AXON self-serve global launch – June 2026 (binary event)
• Bull Trade: Defined-risk bull call spread targeting $648 to $687 resistance zone | max loss = net debit
• Bear Trade: Bear put spread below $534.99 if AXON launch disappoints | capped risk
• Neutral Trade: Short iron condor if range-bound into August 5 earnings | captures elevated IV
• Options: OI put/call ratio 0.73 (net bullish) | IV elevated ahead of launch event
• Analyst Consensus: Strong Buy | 26 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell | Avg. target $648.10 | High $860 (Jefferies) | Low $515 (JP Morgan)
• Q1 2026: Revenue $1.84B (+59% YoY) | EPS $3.56 | EBITDA margin 85% (record) | FCF $1.29B | Cash $2.76B
• Q2 2026 Guide: Revenue $1.915B to $1.945B | EBITDA margin 84% to 85%
• Next Earnings: August 5, 2026 | EPS consensus: $3.74
• Full-Year 2026: Consensus revenue ~$8.1B | EPS $9.34 vs. $4.68 in FY2025
• Buyback: $1B repurchased in Q1 2026 | $2.3B authorization remaining
• Open Risks: AXON execution, SEC data probe (no timeline), Meta competitive pressure (deferred to 2027), $218.7M insider sales last 3 months
• Valuation: P/E 47.83x | PEG 0.43 | Morningstar fair value $238 (significant premium to current)
• All analysis is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always manage position size relative to your defined maximum loss.

Most software companies pick one. Grow fast or protect margins. AppLovin is doing both, at the same time, at scale, and the Street cannot agree on what that is actually worth.

Q1 2026 hit $1.84 billion in revenue, up 59% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA came in at 85% – a company record, set in the same quarter growth accelerated. Net income more than doubled. Free cash flow was $1.29 billion, $1 billion of which went straight to buybacks. Q2 guidance landed above consensus again. Eight consecutive EPS beats. Zero downward revisions heading into any of them.

What matters most right now is not last quarter.

This month, AppLovin opened AXON to all advertisers worldwide – the first time in 14 years the platform has operated as anything other than a closed, sales-assisted system. CEO Adam Foroughi called it the single largest structural change in company history. His math on the Q1 call: a new customer spends over $70,000 in year one. Sign 100,000 of them and first-year ad spend approaches $7 billion before cohorts start stacking. That is the compounding mechanism the market is trying to price right now. Hence 26 Buy ratings, zero Sells, and a $345 spread between the most cautious and most bullish price targets on the Street.

Worth knowing before moving on: the consumer vertical – what used to be called e-commerce – saw March spend surge 25% versus January. April hit an all-time monthly high. Gaming is still the base. Consumer is now growing faster. That shift started before the self-serve channel even opened. That part is not getting enough attention.

Technically, the stock ran 65% off its March 30 pivot low in under 60 days. It sits above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. RSI near 69 – not a sell signal on its own, but stretched. Support at $587 and $534. Resistance stacks at $648, $687, and $718 before the all-time high zone near $742. A stock moving this fast needs either a catalyst to extend or time to absorb. The AXON launch is that potential catalyst. It either resolves the velocity or exposes it.

The risks are real and worth naming directly. SEC probe still open, no resolution timeline. $218.7 million in insider sales over three months – mostly pre-arranged under 10b5-1 plans, but the cumulative volume is not nothing. Meta’s competitive push into non-IDFA iOS traffic deferred to 2027, not gone. Morningstar still has a $238 fair value estimate. The 47.83x P/E says you are paying for what comes next. The PEG of 0.43 says the growth justifies part of that cost. The gap between those two interpretations is where most of the disagreement lives.

The business quality is not in question. 85% EBITDA margins and $1 billion in quarterly buybacks do not need defending. The open question is whether e-commerce, CTV via Wurl, the Gist social app, and the self-serve channel compound at anything close to what gaming did. Each one is a separate execution bet. None of them are guaranteed.

The first real answer arrives this month.

 – TCS