Earnings season typically opens with analysts having already trimmed expectations, leaving companies room to clear a lowered bar. Q3 2026 did the opposite. Analysts actually increased earnings estimates for Q3 during the quarter, lifting the per-share bottom-up figure by 1.4% between June 30 and September 30. That is not a rounding error. Over the previous 20 quarters, estimates typically declined by around 2.2% in the same window.
FactSet’s October 2 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026 puts the estimated year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 at 29.5% for Q3 2026. If that holds, it will mark the third straight quarter of growth above 25% for the index. It would also be the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. The difference this cycle is that companies helped build the estimate higher, not lower. FactSet found 62% of S&P 500 companies that issued EPS guidance for Q3 issued positive guidance, well above the five-year average of 40% and the ten-year average of 41%. FactSet also notes the percentage is the highest since Q2 2021.
The concentration matters. FactSet reports that 44 of the 72 companies issuing positive Q3 guidance came from Information Technology, representing 61% of the total. Outside tech, the positive guidance rate is close to historical norms. The broad 29.5% headline is real, but it is not evenly distributed.
The Schedule: Three Gates in Eight Days
Lamb Weston reports this morning. The frozen potato company is not a market mover on its own, but it is a read on food service volumes and consumer staples margin pressure. Shelf-stable food stocks have underperformed broadly, down 6.5% on average over the last month, with Lamb Weston down 11.7% heading into results against an average analyst price target of $54.33 versus a share price of $43.63. A beat could signal a washout low; a miss deepens the sector’s problems.
Delta Air Lines is the first major macro read. Delta is scheduled to report Friday morning, October 9. Wall Street expects earnings of $1.88 per share. The complication: Delta’s own management guided for adjusted EPS between $2.00 and $2.50 for Q3 2026, meaning the current consensus sits below the floor of that range. Either the Street is being conservative or the guidance was too optimistic. Delta’s answer sets the tone for transports and tells traders whether consumer travel demand held through summer.
JPMorgan is the gate that matters most for the market’s direction. JPMorganChase will host its Q3 earnings conference call on Tuesday, October 13, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The consensus EPS estimate is $5.88, compared to $5.07 in Q3 2025. JPMorgan beat estimates in each of the prior four quarters, including a 9.84% EPS surprise in Q2. The bank enters with a recently raised dividend: the firm has said it intends to increase its quarterly dividend from $1.50 to $1.65 per share for the third quarter of 2026, with the next payment scheduled for October 31. Financials are the sector’s confidence indicator. A strong JPMorgan result with maintained guidance would confirm that credit markets and capital markets are both functioning well beneath the index’s big growth number.
The Trading Plan
FactSet projects all eleven sectors will report year-over-year growth, with five sectors predicted to report double-digit growth, led by Energy, Information Technology, Communication Services, and Materials. Revenue expectations rose too: the S&P 500 is expected to report year-over-year revenue growth of 12.3%, up from 10.9% at the end of June.
The risk is not the number itself. When analysts raise the bar themselves, companies need to clear it cleanly or the reaction is punishing. Watch whether results land above the revised estimate or merely above the June 30 starting point. That distinction will separate which sectors and stocks lead the next leg from those that gave traders the opportunity to sell the news.
