October 13, 2026
Bonus Content: JPMorgan and Goldman Report This Morning. Trading Revenue Matters Most.
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JPMorgan and Goldman Report This Morning. Trading Revenue Matters Most.
Four banks report before the open today. JPMorgan goes first, at approximately 7:00 a.m. ET. Goldman Sachs follows at 7:30. Wells Fargo and Citi land around the same window. Morgan Stanley reports Wednesday. These are not previews anymore.
Market Snapshot
The backdrop is unfriendly. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.24% at the October 9 close. The Invesco KBW Bank ETF has fallen roughly 9% over the past month while the S&P 500 is modestly higher over the same stretch. Bank stocks are walking into these numbers as sector laggards, which sharpens what investors need from the headline figures.
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4% in September, its first increase since 2023. Fed meeting minutes released October 7 said most officials still expect another hike later this year. This is the first full quarter of bank earnings where that tightening is embedded in P&L.
Stocks in Focus
JPMorgan (JPM), 7:00 a.m. ET. The consensus EPS estimate is $5.93 on revenue of $51.23 billion. In the same quarter a year earlier, JPMorgan reported $5.07 per share. That is 17% expected EPS growth on a base that already looked strong. JPMorgan has beaten the consensus EPS estimate in each of its last two quarters and has beaten consensus in seven of the last eight.
The number to open first is equities trading. In Q2, Equity Markets revenue surged 86% year over year to $6.0 billion. Co-President Doug Petno said at the September Barclays Global Financial Services Conference that investment banking fees should rise by a mid-to-high teens percentage in Q3, contrasting with Bank of America’s expectation for at least a 10% year-over-year decline in investment banking fees. If trading holds close to that guidance, the revenue number should clear consensus easily. If it doesn’t, provision commentary becomes the market-moving line.
Goldman Sachs (GS), 7:30 a.m. ET. Goldman’s earnings estimates are unusually wide, from about $13.35 to $16.42 a share. Providers use different models and dates, so estimates run that full range, making beats harder to judge. The options market is pricing a ±4.7% move. Given the Q2 baseline, diluted EPS climbed 92% year over year to $20.98, any number in the mid-teens still represents a significant sequential step-down. Watch whether equities revenue can offset what analysts expect to be softer FICC results.
Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) report in the same pre-market window. Analysts expect Wells Fargo to post adjusted EPS of $1.85 on revenue of about $22.3 billion, with earnings growth of more than 10%. For Citi, consensus revenue is $23.8 billion with EPS of $2.68, against management guidance pointing to full-year ROTCE above 11%.
Sector Watch: Financials
The sector enters today’s reports as a yield hostage, not a yield beneficiary. Higher long rates lift NII on paper, but higher bond yields can make deposits more expensive, loans harder to service, and deals harder to complete. The Q3 results are the first hard read on how that trade-off is actually showing up in bank income statements. Watch deposit pricing commentary at the JPMorgan 8:30 a.m. call and Goldman’s 9:30 call. That language will set the tone for the rest of the week, including Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday.
Catalyst Calendar
- Today, 7:00 a.m. ET: JPMorgan Q3 results; call at 8:30 a.m. Key figures: EPS vs. $5.93 consensus, equities trading revenue, NII update.
- Today, 7:30 a.m. ET: Goldman Sachs Q3 results; call at 9:30 a.m. Key figures: EPS vs. the $13.35 to $16.42 band, FICC vs. equities split, expense trajectory.
- Today, ~7:00 to 8:00 a.m. ET: Wells Fargo and Citigroup results. NII guidance and credit quality commentary are the swing variables.
- Wednesday, Oct. 14: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley follow.
- Wednesday, 8:30 a.m. ET: September CPI releases in the middle of the bank reporting schedule. A hot number would compound yield pressure.
The Cheat Sheet
- Top Market Theme: The first post-hike bank earnings season tests whether record trading revenue from Q2 can carry forward against a 5.24% 10-year and rising funding costs.
- Stock to Watch: JPMorgan. The widest franchise, the clearest guidance, and the earliest release. If equities trading meets mid-to-high teens growth guidance, JPM sets the tone for every name that follows.
- Sector to Watch: Financials. The sector is down sharply from its September high; a clean beat from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo could close that gap quickly.
- Biggest Risk: Goldman’s unusually wide EPS band. A miss at the low end of estimates, combined with soft FICC commentary, lands during the JPMorgan conference call window and could reset expectations sector-wide before most traders have fully digested JPM’s numbers.
- One Thing to Remember: Check provisions before EPS. If loan-loss reserves are rising faster than revenue, the beat on the headline number tells you less than you think.
