By Noe Torres
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s inflation is forecast to have eased in the first half of February, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, though consumer prices remain well above the central bank’s target, and is likely to make way for another interest rate hike.
The median forecast of 13 analysts forecast annual headline inflation of 7.80% in the first half of February, below the 7.88% recorded in the second half of January.
Annual core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy products, is expected to have dipped to 8.42%, down from 8.46% in the previous fortnight, and sinking from its peak of 8.66% in the first half of November.
Banxico, as the Mexican central bank is known, has raised its key interest rate by 700 basis points since its rate-hiking cycle started in June 2021. Earlier this month it raised the rate by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points to 11%,, as inflation remains far above its target of 3%, plus or minus 1 percentage point.
At its next meeting on March 30, a smaller hike could be on the cards, Banxico said.
Banxico deputy bank governor Jonathan Heath told Reuters last week that the bank’s monetary tightening cycle is nearing its end and nominal interest rates could top out at between 11.25% and 11.75%, at which point rates would be kept steady to allow them to take effect.
In the first half of February, consumer prices were forecast to have risen by 0.38% compared to the previous fortnight, while the core index likely rose 0.39%.
Mexico’s statistics institute will release inflation data for the first half of February on Thursday.
(Reporting by Noe Torres; Additional reporting by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Writing by Isabel Woodford; Editing by Sandra Maler)