Trading Cheat Sheet

Markets are attempting a bounce after last week’s bruising chip-driven selloff. Futures are leaning green, oil is pulling back slightly, and Wall Street’s focus has fully shifted to what matters most this week: whether Alphabet and Tesla can deliver the earnings data points that justify continued AI investment.

Phase 1 — Market Snapshot

Where things stand Monday morning (intraday, July 20):

• S&P 500: ~7,482 (+0.33%), recovering from Friday’s close of 7,457. Down about 1.6% last week.
• Nasdaq: ~25,691 (+0.67%), bouncing after a 1.4% drop Friday and a painful 2.9% slide last week.
• Dow: ~52,042 (-0.20%), lagging slightly. Shed about 0.9% last week.
• Russell 2000: ~2,960 (-0.08%), essentially flat on the session.
• VIX: ~17.88, pulling back after spiking to 18.77 on Friday (+12%). Still elevated. Not complacent territory.
• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.57%, roughly flat on the day. The 2-year sits around 4.18%. Spread is thin but positive.
• Crude Oil (WTI): ~$81.43, down about 0.4%. Easing off after geopolitical-driven spikes last week.
• Gold: ~$4,018, hovering just above the $4,000 psychological level.
• Bitcoin: ~$65,340, up about 1.2% on the session.
• Communication Services: Leading sector Monday, up roughly 1.6%.
• Consumer Staples: Lagging, down around 0.3%.
• Global markets: Nikkei dropped 4.0%. Hang Seng recovered 2.4% after Friday weakness. European markets mixed, DAX slightly positive.

The tone is cautiously optimistic — a modest relief bounce off last week’s lows, but not a rip. Oil easing and hopes for diplomatic progress in the Middle East are providing a small tailwind. The real question is whether earnings can take the baton from here.

Phase 2 — Stocks in Focus

ALPHABET (GOOGL) — Reports Wednesday after close

This is the most consequential report of the week. Analysts expect revenue of roughly $101 billion (Bank of America projects $102.1 billion), with EPS consensus near $2.10 per share. Alphabet’s Q1 revenue hit $109.9 billion, up 22% year-over-year — powered by Google Cloud and Search. The Q2 report will tell traders whether that pace held. There’s also noise around a reported delay to Alphabet’s Gemini 3.5 Pro AI model. Investors will want clarity on that, plus any update on AI capital expenditure following the company’s $80 billion equity raise in June. Alphabet accounts for nearly 70% of the combined market cap among the week’s big three reporters. Its direction Wednesday will move the indexes.

TESLA (TSLA) — Reports Wednesday after close

Tesla’s Q2 deliveries came in at 480,126 — beating estimates, with production at 451,758 (deliveries outpacing production, suggesting inventory drawdown). The EV maker’s earnings are forecast to have grown roughly 25% from the year-earlier period. Tesla has dropped nearly 22% from its peak. Margin compression remains the core concern. Tesla also holds 11,509 BTC on its balance sheet; any commentary on that position could create noise in crypto markets. Shares have fallen after three of the last four earnings releases — that history matters for how traders position into Wednesday’s close.

INTEL (INTC) — Reports Thursday after close

Intel is down roughly 13% over the past week alone, despite surging more than 20% on a blowout Q1 earlier this year. Analysts expect Q2 revenue of about $14 billion (+12% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.22. Investors want progress on the data center and AI chip roadmap, updates on its Terafab project and Google partnership, and any signal on whether Q1’s margin recovery holds. Intel’s result Thursday will either validate the chip sector rebound or extend the pain.

GENERAL MOTORS (GM) — Reports Tuesday before open

GM raised its 2026 guidance and beat Q1 expectations. This week’s Q2 report drops at approximately 6:30 a.m. ET Tuesday. GM recently restructured its EV business following the expiration of related tax credits. As a traditional automaker navigating electrification, GM’s results offer a useful counterpoint to the tech-heavy earnings slate. Watch the conference call for consumer demand signals and any revised full-year guidance.

DOMINO’S PIZZA (DPZ) — Earnings already in

DPZ popped nearly 4% Monday after Q2 revenue of $1.194 billion topped estimates of $1.18 billion (+4.3% year-over-year). Adjusted EPS of $4.07 missed consensus of $4.20. A beat-on-revenue, miss-on-earnings split — and the market bought it. Worth watching for context on consumer spending behavior.

IBM (IBM) — Reports Wednesday

IBM will limp into its Q2 report after suffering its worst single session on record last week — a 25% plunge on the back of disappointing preliminary results. Oppenheimer downgraded the stock to Perform, citing difficulty meeting full-year guidance. Analysts expect earnings growth of more than 5%. This one matters for enterprise software sentiment broadly.

Phase 3 — Sector Watch

Semiconductors — Still in a bear market, watching for a floor

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has dropped more than 20% from its late-June record high. That confirms a bear market in chips. The decline was triggered by a convergence of factors: stretched valuations after a 65% H1 rally, concerns about AI hyperscaler capital spending, the emergence of competitive Chinese AI models (Moonshot/Kimi), SK Hynix slowing its HBM4 memory expansion, and hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The selloff hit globally — South Korea’s KOSPI fell sharply and briefly triggered circuit breakers. The important nuance: fundamentals haven’t broken. AI memory is still largely sold out through FY2026. HBM demand from Nvidia’s Blackwell platform remains intact. This looks more like a valuation correction than a structural breakdown. Intel and Alphabet earnings this week will set the tone for whether chips stabilize or extend lower.

Energy — Geopolitical bid, but watch the ceiling

Energy stocks are up more than 22% year-to-date. ExxonMobil and Chevron are leading. The US-Iran conflict has kept a floor under oil prices, with WTI hovering around $81 after recent spikes. The risk, and this is real: if diplomatic progress resumes, the geopolitical risk premium in crude deflates quickly. Energy gains depend heavily on oil staying above $80. A de-escalation could erase them fast.

Financials and Industrials — The rotation continues

Capital has been flowing steadily out of AI hardware and into financials, industrials, and consumer defensives. Industrials are up more than 16% year-to-date. Caterpillar is up 32%. This is a real rotation with real money behind it — not just a blip. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index has been modestly outperforming the cap-weighted version for over a month. That’s a sign of broader participation, not just mega-cap tech carrying the index. This week’s bank and industrial earnings (Capital One, 3M, Halliburton) will help determine if the rotation has staying power.

Phase 4 — Catalyst Calendar

• Monday, July 20: No major earnings or economic data. Market digests last week and positions for earnings.
• Tuesday, July 21: General Motors (GM) before open. Capital One (COF) after close. Alaska Air (ALK) after close. Also: Novartis (NVS), 3M (MMM), Halliburton (HAL), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Danaher (DHR).
• Wednesday, July 22: Alphabet (GOOGL) after close. Tesla (TSLA) after close. IBM (IBM), ServiceNow (NOW), AT&T (T), Texas Instruments (TXN), Philip Morris (PM). AMD hosts a two-day AI chip conference in San Francisco — new partnerships and customer announcements possible.
• Thursday, July 23: Intel (INTC) after close. Comcast (CMCSA). Lockheed Martin (LMT), Union Pacific (UNP), T-Mobile (TMUS), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX).
• Friday, July 24: American Express (AXP) before open. Verizon (VZ), NextEra Energy (NEE). S&P Global preliminary PMI data (Manufacturing and Services) for July.
• Ongoing: US-Iran military developments. Any diplomatic movement or further escalation will move oil, defense stocks, and broad market sentiment. Fed speakers remain in focus as rate-hike probability stays elevated — over two-thirds of rate futures are positioned for at least one Fed hike by year-end.

Phase 5 — Technical Radar

• S&P 500: Previous close 7,457. Trading around 7,482 Monday. The 52-week range runs from 6,212 to 7,620. The all-time high near 7,620 is roughly 1.8% above current levels. Immediate support is in the 7,430-7,460 zone. A sustained hold above 7,500 would be a constructive signal.
• Nasdaq: Down 2.9% last week, bouncing today. The Nasdaq-100 has fallen about 5% from its early June peak. A failure to reclaim 25,800 on a closing basis would suggest the bounce is corrective, not a trend reversal.
• SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index): Confirmed bear market — down 20%+ from late-June highs. The 50-day moving average is the critical level. A reclaim of that level would be the first signal that the correction is stabilizing.
• Gold: Hovering just above $4,000. That level is acting as psychological support. A break below it would be a sentiment shift worth noting.
• Oil (WTI): Trading around $81.43, off last week’s highs. Watch the $80 level as support. A sustained move below $78 would signal meaningful risk premium deflation.
• Bitcoin: ~$65,340, up on the session. No major technical levels broken. Watch Tesla’s earnings call Wednesday for any BTC commentary from Musk.
• S&P 500 Equal Weight (SPXEW): Up slightly over the past month while cap-weighted S&P has been under pressure. Market breadth is improving — that’s a positive underpinning even if the headline index looks wobbly.

Phase 6 — Risk Radar

• Earnings disappointments from Alphabet or Tesla: These two reports on Wednesday carry the most market-moving potential of the week. Combined with Intel, they represent over $5 trillion in market cap. A miss or weak guidance from Alphabet — particularly on AI capex or cloud margins — could reignite the chip selloff and send the Nasdaq to new lows. Tesla has fallen after three of its last four earnings releases.
• US-Iran escalation: Airstrikes continued over the weekend. Iran has received proposals about resuming negotiations but says it will continue to defend itself. The Strait of Hormuz remains a tail risk. A formal closure removing 17-21 million barrels per day from global transit would represent a supply shock with no modern precedent, with Brent potentially spiking well above $100.
• Fed rate hike risk: Over two-thirds of rate futures are positioned for at least one Fed hike by year-end. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled a more hawkish stance than his predecessors. The current federal funds rate sits at 3.50-3.75%. Rate hike expectations are a headwind for high-multiple growth stocks — particularly the chip and AI complex.
• Leverage and positioning: Goldman Sachs noted a buildup of leverage across the market — in retail margin, levered ETF assets, and short-dated options volume. Hedge funds have trimmed AI hardware exposure for four straight weeks. A large miss from a megacap this week could force additional unwinding.
• Semiconductor concentration: Despite the broadening rotation, technology still represents roughly 29% of the S&P 500 by weight. A sustained chip bear market will eventually weigh on the headline index regardless of strength in industrials and energy.

Phase 7 — The Cheat Sheet

• Top Market Theme: Earnings season is now the primary test for whether the AI investment cycle is generating real returns — or whether the market was running ahead of the fundamentals.
• Stock to Watch: Alphabet (GOOGL). It reports Wednesday and accounts for nearly 70% of the combined market cap of this week’s major tech reporters. Its cloud margins and AI capex commentary will set the direction for everything AI-adjacent into the back half of the week.
• Sector to Watch: Technology / Semiconductors. The SOX is in a confirmed bear market but bouncing Monday. Intel earnings Thursday will be the next read on whether the correction is stabilizing or has further to go.
• Biggest Risk: A weak Alphabet report Wednesday. If Google Cloud growth disappoints or AI capex commentary spooks investors, it would validate the broader concern that AI spending isn’t translating to returns yet — and that would hit chips, software, and the Nasdaq simultaneously.
• Biggest Opportunity: A clean Alphabet beat with strong cloud guidance. That would be the clearest signal yet that hyperscaler AI spending is producing measurable results — and it would likely trigger a meaningful recovery in beaten-down chip names heading into Intel’s Thursday report.
• One Thing to Remember: Of the roughly 50 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far this season, 88-90% have topped analyst expectations. The earnings backdrop is strong. The question isn’t whether companies are performing — it’s whether their guidance can justify where valuations were two weeks ago.