Two numbers from Thursday’s session frame what changed: bitcoin settled at $81,263, its first close above $81,000 in months, and Robinhood finished just under $125, up nearly 17%, the biggest single-day gain in the S&P 500. Together they map the trade that unwound.

What Moved the Market

The catalyst arrived midday. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated he would favor keeping interest rates unchanged at the September 15–16 meeting if upcoming inflation data shows price pressures are cooling. That one conditional sentence was enough. Traders now see the September decision as roughly a coin flip, after odds had leaned more clearly toward a hike earlier in the week.

The most rate-sensitive corners of the market, including software, small caps, and anything crypto-linked, led the bounce. The S&P 500 rose 1.06% to 7,747.71, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4% to 26,584.06, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 624 points to close at 53,686.11.

Bitcoin and Crypto: The Direct Reversal

Bitcoin briefly topped $81,000 on Thursday, hitting its highest level in nearly four months, and rose to as high as $81,379.10 around midday. The close at $81,263.99 extended a run higher that started from a $63,018.75 low.

This is a reversal of the sentiment that had prediction markets leaning toward a break below $75,000 just weeks ago. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs recorded about $731 million in net inflows on September 3, their strongest single-day haul since January, while crypto markets saw roughly $445 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, mostly shorts.

Ethereum added 4.87% to $2,508, while XRP outperformed with a 7.52% jump to $1.4513 and Solana rose 3.58% to $103.98. Total crypto market cap rose to about $2.82 trillion.

Robinhood: Three Upgrades and One Very Good Thursday

Shares of Robinhood jumped nearly 17% to finish Thursday’s session just under $125, making it the biggest gainer in the S&P 500 on a strong day for stocks and cryptocurrencies. The stock is now positive for the year.

Piper Sandler raised its price target on Robinhood to $145 from $135, maintaining an Overweight rating. The firm cited potential upside from prediction market revenues, noting that while the World Cup drove volumes through the summer, the NFL and NCAA football seasons are set to take center stage. Its base case points to about 29.7 billion event contracts between September and December, which it estimates could produce roughly $320 million in revenue during that period.

Morgan Stanley upgraded Robinhood to Overweight with a $150 target, while Scotiabank assigned a Sector Outperform rating with a $136 target. Three bullish calls in two days, then a macro tailwind, the timing was close to perfect.

Robinhood’s rally also came as its chain generated about $4.0 million in revenue over the last 24 hours, according to DeFiLlama.

The Rest of the Crypto Equity Complex

Strategy (MSTR), the single largest corporate holder of bitcoin, jumped about 18%. The stock climbed from a close near $92 in mid-August to about $144.82 on September 3, a roughly 57% run in less than three weeks. Coinbase and Mara Holdings added about 10% and 11%, respectively.

What Traders Watch Next

Markets are treating September as a close call, and higher rates tend to pressure riskier assets like crypto. Waller’s signal is conditional, not a commitment. The two-week window before the September 15–16 meeting now concentrates risk around August CPI, due September 11. Markets will also turn attention to the August jobs report, due Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, the last major economic data point before the Fed’s September meeting.

For bitcoin, the $81,000 level is now the line traders will watch on any pullback. For Robinhood, the Piper Sandler target of $145 sits roughly 16% above Thursday’s close, but that gap closes fast if football season prediction-market volumes deliver.