October 17, 2026
Bonus Content: Brent Hit $110. Airlines and Tankers Face Opposite Fates.
Dear Investor,
One year ago today, Bitcoin was trading around $118,000.
This morning, it’s in the low $80,000s. Roughly 30% cheaper, in the same month.
But that’s nothing compared to the coin I want to show you.
It once traded above $16. Today it’s under $2.
Still roughly 88% below its all-time high.
And the business underneath it never stopped working. It’s one of the busiest trading platforms on Solana, one of crypto’s largest blockchains. Traders swap through it every day. And 12% of the fees from those trades go toward buying back its own token.
That’s the part I can’t ignore. As October heats up and trading picks up, those buybacks pick up with it.
The market has started noticing. It more than doubled over the past month.
But from a starting point 88% below its peak, I believe the real move could still be ahead.
That’s the kind of setup behind my biggest calls. OCEAN at seven cents. KDA at sixteen cents. Overlooked, then suddenly everywhere.
Past results never guarantee future ones. But I know which side of this I’d rather be on.
The full report is normally $97. On this page, $3.
See my #1 coin for October (before this month’s biggest moves).
To your massive success,
Bryce Paul
Crypto 101
Brent Hit $110. Airlines and Tankers Face Opposite Fates.
The gap risk going into Saturday’s open is real, and it cuts in two directions. Brent futures hit a session high of $110 per barrel Friday for the first time since May before settling at $109.86, a gain of 3.7%. WTI rose 3.5% to settle at $101.41. That is not a geopolitical premium that fades Monday. It is the market pricing a waterway that has become functionally hostile to commercial shipping.
Market Snapshot
At least nine tankers and cargo ships have come under attack in and around the Strait of Hormuz since Sunday. Iran said Wednesday a cargo ship sank after hitting a naval mine in the strait, and shipping officials said two Singapore-registered cargo vessels were hit by unknown projectiles as they went through the strait Tuesday and Wednesday. Transit volume has collapsed to roughly two ships per day against a normal pace of about 85.
India’s ports minister confirmed a crude oil tanker carrying 15 Indian crew was struck by a projectile in the strait Friday. War-risk insurance for tankers has surged from pre-crisis levels, and multiple P&I clubs have issued war-risk cancellation notices during this conflict.
Stocks in Focus
- FRO, DHT, INSW: Frontline is the most direct equity expression of the tanker-rate shock, with revenue tied directly to the spot charter market. Comparable beneficiaries include International Seaways and DHT Holdings, which offer additional liquid exposure to VLCC spot rates. The question for Monday is whether Friday’s Brent surge adds another leg or forces profit-taking against that backdrop.
- XOM and integrated majors: Higher crude supports upstream realizations, but refining margins face pressure as jet fuel and diesel costs climb faster than crack spreads normalize. Watch for guidance revisions if $100-plus WTI holds through Q4.
- Airlines: Airlines face higher fuel costs, longer routes, and mounting pressure on 2026 margins. Executives at carriers such as United now face a familiar dilemma on fares and capacity, with analysts warning that higher jet fuel prices and systematic rerouting could take a meaningful bite out of 2026 results. Any carrier with unhedged fuel exposure opens with downside gap risk Monday.
Catalyst Calendar
Trump said the U.S. may have to target Pickaxe Mountain, a site linked to Iran’s nuclear program, as he aims to ensure Tehran does not get a nuclear weapon. Trump said there was no need to use a nuclear bomb, stating “I wouldn’t use nuclear. We don’t have to.”
On the other side of the ledger, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Friday that Tehran does not seek nuclear weapons and expressed readiness for dialogue. “We have always been ready for dialogue. They think they can force us to surrender, but we will not bow to coercion,” he said. Any credible diplomatic signal over the weekend would be the single biggest catalyst for crude selling off sharply at the open.
The Cheat Sheet
- Top Market Theme: The Strait of Hormuz has shifted from a risk premium story to a physical flow story, with throughput at a fraction of normal and war-risk insurance costs sharply higher than pre-crisis levels.
- Stock to Watch: FRO. Frontline carries the broadest fleet exposure to current spot rates and is the most liquid expression of the tanker trade. A ceasefire signal reopens reversion risk fast.
- Sector to Watch: Energy, but the internal split matters. Tanker operators benefit from exactly the conditions that hurt airlines. Owning one while shorting the other is the cleaner expression of this move than a simple crude long.
- Biggest Risk: A weekend diplomatic breakthrough. Trump has repeatedly predicted the war would end soon and has said Tehran was negotiating with Washington. If that has any substance, Brent could gap sharply lower Monday and reverse every tanker gain.
- Biggest Opportunity: The tanker trio: FRO, DHT, INSW. Brent at $109 creates a compounding earnings tailwind that has not yet fully worked through forward estimates.
- One Thing to Remember: Pezeshkian’s offer to talk and Trump’s threat to strike are not contradictory. They are both in play simultaneously, which means vol stays elevated and directional bets need tight risk management until one side blinks.
