Qualcomm’s earnings report landed after the close on November 4, and the market’s first reaction was to sell. That reaction is the opportunity.
Qualcomm reported fiscal Q4 non-GAAP revenues of $10.4 billion and EPS of $2.17, with QCT revenues of about $9.0 billion. Revenue came in at the high end of guidance. The stock had already run more than 5% into the report on a post-election rally and a SpaceX network deal. When management guided Q1 fiscal 2027 EPS to $2.15–$2.35 against a consensus of $2.32, the selloff began. After-hours quotes varied by venue, but Qualcomm traded down in the postmarket after its regular-session close.
As of this morning, shares are closer to $156, sitting roughly 40% below their 52-week high of $259.92.
The Business Underneath the Price Action
Qualcomm is not a handset company pretending otherwise. The numbers make that case without any help from management spin.
QCT Automotive revenue hit its first $2 billion quarter, up 89% year-over-year. Automotive revenue reached an $8 billion annualized run rate exiting fiscal 2026, about $1 billion ahead of the $7 billion expectation the company cited previously. That is not a rounding error. The auto business was supposed to hit $7 billion annualized and cleared that bar by year-end.
For fiscal 2026, Qualcomm reported non-GAAP revenues of about $43.2 billion. Total non-handset revenues in QCT, including Automotive and IoT, grew 36% year-over-year.
Why Wall Street Is Paying Attention
The bigger story is what happens in fiscal 2027. Management called fiscal 2027 “the start of our non-handset revenue inflection, including the ramp of our Data Center business,” and reiterated a fiscal 2027 Data Center revenue target of $5 billion, with non-handset revenues projected to grow by more than 60% year-over-year.
Data center revenue, which did not appear as a separate QCT revenue stream during fiscal 2026, is expected to be included within QCT starting in fiscal 2027. Qualcomm expects data center revenues in Q1 fiscal 2027 to exceed $650 million, increasing each quarter throughout the year, and exiting fiscal 2027 at a $7 billion annualized run rate. The long-range target, reiterated on the call, is $15 billion by fiscal 2029.
Qualcomm has announced a multi-generational product collaboration with Amazon focused on customized silicon for AI data center infrastructure. An Amazon multi-generational custom silicon collaboration was announced earlier this fall. That is not a letter of intent. That is a design win with the world’s largest cloud provider.
What Could Go Wrong
The margin guidance is the genuine concern here, not a manufactured one. Q1 fiscal 2027 QCT EBT margin guidance of 20–22% includes a 3-point impact from bringing Data Center into the QCT segment, reflecting investment in AI accelerator and CPU roadmaps ahead of the revenue ramp. Management says the full pricing benefit from higher input costs hits margins in the second half of fiscal 2027. Investors who needed proof today are selling. That creates the entry.
QCT handset revenues are forecast to decline mid-single-digit sequentially in Q1 fiscal 2027 due to the Apple modem transition and memory pricing headwinds. The Apple exposure is real and shrinking, which is simultaneously a near-term drag and a long-term clearing event.
The Bottom Line
The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio below 20 and offers a dividend yield around 2.2%. The average analyst price target implies roughly 25% upside from current levels.
Qualcomm closed fiscal 2026 with its auto business ahead of schedule, its data center business entering its first full year inside QCT with an Amazon collaboration in hand, and non-handset revenue on track for a step-change in fiscal 2027. The stock is down sharply because a margin guide disappointed investors who had already priced in perfection. For investors willing to look past a single quarter of margin investment, the gap between what this business is becoming and what the stock is pricing today is exactly the kind of situation worth acting on.
