Multi-Million-Ounce Canadian Gold Story Still Below US$0.25 Per Share

July 2, 2026

Gold Hit $5,589. Miners Are 36% Off Their High.

Featured: Gold Hit $5,589. Miners Are 36% Off Their High.


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Gold Hit $5,589. Miners Are 36% Off Their High.

Gold hit an all-time high of $5,589.38 per ounce on January 28, 2026. The miners threw a party for about two months and then quietly gave most of it back. GDX, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, was trading around $75 in late June and remains well below its 52-week peak of $117.18. That is roughly a 36% discount from the top. Spot gold, meanwhile, is back above $4,060 as of early July 2026, after briefly dipping below $4,000 earlier in the week.

This is the kind of gap that makes value-oriented investors stop scrolling.

Why It Matters

Gold miners are supposed to be leveraged plays on the gold price. When gold goes up, their margins expand faster than the metal moves, because production costs are relatively fixed. When gold is sitting above $4,000 an ounce, the economics can be extraordinary.

That’s not theoretical. It’s already showing up in earnings.

Agnico Eagle (NYSE: AEM), one of the largest gold miners in the world and one of GDX’s top holdings, posted Q1 2026 results in late April that were genuinely eye-opening. Net income came in at $1.695 billion, up roughly 135% year over year. The company reported a realized gold price of $4,861 per ounce in the quarter, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $1,483 per ounce. That is a margin of over $3,300 per ounce. Adjusted EBITDA exceeded $3 billion for the quarter. Free cash flow was $732 million.

That is a business generating record cash. And the stock is still down from its highs.

Why Did the Miners Fall So Hard

A few things converged.

Gold peaked on January 28 and then pulled back sharply through February and into spring. A stronger-than-expected US dollar weighed on bullion. Rate hike expectations resurfaced as the US-Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, stoking inflation fears. As of early July, markets are pricing in more than a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike in September.

Higher rates are structurally negative for gold because they raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. When that story took hold, gold dropped, and the miners dropped faster. Worth noting: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the ECB’s Sintra forum on July 1, signaled there was no urgency to raise rates immediately, which helped gold recover back above $4,000. But the uncertainty is not gone.

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Where Gold Goes From Here

The big banks are not exactly bearish long term, but they have adjusted their views. Goldman Sachs cut its year-end 2026 gold target from $5,400 to $4,900 per ounce in June, citing fading expectations for Fed rate cuts and weaker ETF inflows. If the Fed actually hikes rates, Goldman’s downside scenario puts gold at $4,400 by year-end. J.P. Morgan has kept a more optimistic posture, forecasting gold to average $6,000 per ounce in the final quarter of 2026 and potentially reaching $6,300 by end of 2027.

The structural case for gold has not disappeared. Central bank demand is still running well above historical norms.

The World Gold Council’s full-year central bank buying target for 2026 sits at 700 to 900 tons. That is roughly in line with the 863 tons purchased in 2025, and it reflects a level of institutional demand that simply was not present before 2022. A record 45% of central banks surveyed by the WGC in June 2026 said they plan to increase their own gold reserves over the next 12 months.

The Part People Skip

GDX currently trades at a trailing P/E of around 14x. For a sector where earnings just more than doubled and margins are set to stay elevated as long as gold holds anywhere near current levels, that is not an expensive multiple. The fund’s top holdings include Agnico Eagle and Newmont, and both have emphasized shareholder returns in recent quarters. Agnico alone authorized a $2 billion share buyback alongside its Q1 results.

Slight tangent, but it is worth mentioning: Agnico’s AISC of $1,483 per ounce means the company is capturing more than $2,500 in margin per ounce at current gold prices. That is not a thin-margin commodity business right now. That is exceptional profitability hiding inside a stock that is still 26% below its 52-week high.

The mismatch between the metal and the miners often resolves one of two ways: gold comes down to meet the stocks, or the stocks eventually catch up. If you believe gold holds above $4,000 and the miners are already priced for something closer to $3,200 gold, that gap represents real potential.

The Cheap Investor Take

This is not a story about gold going to $6,000. It is about whether a 14x P/E business generating record free cash flow deserves to be 36% off its highs when the commodity it sells is still historically elevated. If that question interests you, GDX, AEM, and Newmont are all worth a closer look. The key thing to watch is any shift in Fed language around rate policy, since rate hike expectations are what brought the miners down in the first place.

Gold could keep drifting lower. The Fed could hike in September and compress margins further. Or the miners could start reflecting the fact that their margins have rarely been better in modern history. The market is currently betting on the former. That does not mean the market is right.

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