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Why the Fed’s Hawks Trust the ECI More Than the Jobs Report

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Why the Fed’s Hawks Trust the ECI More Than the Jobs Report

Why the Fed's Hawks Trust the ECI More Than the Jobs Report

After the decision, futures markets shifted to price a higher likelihood of a December 9 hike. The backdrop from Thursday only added fuel: real GDP rose 3.4% annualized in Q3 2026, up from 2.2% in Q2, while core PCE was 3.1% in September. The hawks have everything they need to make the case. What they are wai …

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