Markets go into the week of April 20 carrying a specific data set that traders need to respect before touching anything. The S&P 500 lost -1.5% for the week ending April 17, while the Nasdaq Composite was down -2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000 bucked the trend, gaining +1.1%. Crude oil snapped a two-week losing streak, rising +5.2%. Bonds rebounded some of their losses from the previous week as yields fell, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield retreating 16 basis points to finish at 4.32%.

Markets were closed Friday in observance of Good Friday. Even with a holiday-shortened week, equity markets continued their choppy, topsy-turvy trading. The good news was that levels of volatility narrowed considerably since they surged in the days after the April 2 “Liberation Day” announcement. The S&P 500 closed Thursday, April 17 at 5,282.70. The VIX, while down from its April panic peak above 45, remains in elevated territory — a structural signal that this market is not operating on conviction.

This is your cheat sheet. Read it before Monday’s open.

The Iran Situation: What Changed Over the Weekend

This is the single most important variable in global markets right now, and it changed materially on Friday, April 18 — after most traders had already gone home for the long weekend. You need to understand exactly what happened before Monday’s open.

On Friday afternoon, Iran’s Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi announced via X that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon. Global equity and energy markets reacted immediately. WTI dropped more than 12% to roughly $82 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 10% to around $88 per barrel. Heating oil futures, a proxy for jet fuel, dropped 10%.

But here is the critical nuance that the headline does not capture: Iran announced on April 17 that passage was completely open during the truce. President Trump then clarified that the U.S. naval blockade against vessels departing from or docking at Iranian ports would still remain in effect. Iran’s response was to cancel the reopening of the Strait, with video footage showing ships turning away. On April 18, Iran said it closed the Strait again in response to the U.S. refusing to lift its naval blockade.

The net result going into Monday: the Strait is effectively closed again. The oil drop on Friday may partially reverse at the open. The two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire on Tuesday, April 22. That date is now the single most important geopolitical marker of the entire week. If talks do not produce a framework before Tuesday, the market loses its ceasefire premium entirely.

JPMorgan Chase commodities analysts wrote: “The last tanker to clear Hormuz on February 28 is expected to reach its destination around April 20, marking the point at which pre-closure barrels are fully exhausted from the global supply chain.” That date is Monday. The buffer is gone. This week, the supply gap becomes physical, not theoretical.

What the Hormuz Crisis Actually Means for Your Trades

Until the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was open and about 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade and 20% of the world’s LNG passed through it. Goldman Sachs noted in a Wednesday publication that flows through the strait remain constrained, running at just about 10% of normal levels — roughly 2.1 million barrels per day on a four-day moving average.

U.S. government officials and Wall Street analysts are now considering the prospect that oil prices might surge to an unprecedented $200 a barrel. While crude oil futures have remained well below their peaks, prices for refined fuels like diesel and jet fuel have rocketed in recent weeks — at times topping $200 per barrel equivalent — offering the first glimpses of demand destruction in Asian markets.

The downstream effects extend far beyond crude oil and go directly to the earnings calls you will be listening to this week. The Persian Gulf is a major hub for global fertilizer production and exports. In the 2020s the region accounted for roughly 30–35% of global urea exports and around 20–30% of ammonia exports. Up to 30% of internationally traded fertilizers normally transit the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflict has also precipitated a second major energy crisis for Europe, primarily through the suspension of Qatari LNG. The conflict coincided with historically low European gas storage levels — estimated at just 30% capacity following a harsh winter — causing Dutch TTF gas benchmarks to nearly double to over €60/MWh by mid-March. That means European industrial input costs are rising sharply — relevant for any multinational company reporting guidance this week.

Industry participants report signs that U.S. oil exports to Asia are poised to surge in April, as refineries hunt for alternative suppliers to replace Middle East barrels. For U.S. domestic energy producers, this is a direct revenue tailwind that will show up in forward guidance this week.

Earnings Calendar: Day-by-Day, April 20–24

Another pivotal week is ahead for the stock market as heavyweight names prepare to report. Tesla, Alphabet, Intel, and GE lead a packed lineup that spans across sectors — from tech and airlines to energy and healthcare. Here is your day-by-day breakdown with the specific angles that matter.

The 3M Read on Monday. Analysts expect 3M to report earnings of $1.98 per share, up 5.3% year-over-year, on revenue of $6.0 billion. Argus Research notes that margins are widening and cash flow is strong, but while 3M’s U.S. manufacturing footprint and local manufacturing in countries like China help it shift production as needed, the impact of tariffs makes the full outlook uncertain. Watch the margin guidance carefully — 3M is a living stress test for industrial companies navigating tariff uncertainty.

The Tesla Problem on Tuesday. Tesla reports Tuesday after the close. The stock has been under severe pressure all year. The question is not whether TSLA beats Q1 estimates — the deliveries miss is already known. The question is whether Elon Musk shows up to the call with a credible operational roadmap or continues to let DOGE-distraction headlines define the narrative. Watch the call, not the headline EPS number.

The Alphabet Test on Wednesday. With the ceasefire expiring Tuesday, April 22, Alphabet reports Wednesday into what could be a fresh round of geopolitical volatility. Ad spending from large retail importers like Temu and Shein has already pulled back as tariff uncertainty reduces their ROI on U.S. customer acquisition. Any softness in that segment — which represents over 20% of Google’s ad revenue per Oppenheimer estimates — is a direct headwind that will not be offset by cloud growth alone.

The Valero and AAL Combination on Thursday. These two names together tell you the entire oil-to-consumer transmission story in one afternoon. Valero’s refining margins will show what crack spreads actually look like at current crude levels. American Airlines’ jet fuel cost guidance will confirm how deeply the Hormuz crisis has penetrated airline operating economics. If AAL withdraws full-year guidance, the airline sector sells off across the board within the hour.

Intel on Thursday After the Close. Intel reports first-quarter earnings after Thursday’s close. Analysts are forecasting earnings of 1 cent per share for Intel’s Q1, a notable decline from its year-ago earnings of 13 cents per share. Revenue is expected to arrive at $12.4 billion, down 2.4% year-over-year. The turnaround story here is fragile, and any guidance that implies further competitive pressure from AMD or continued data center share loss to NVIDIA will be punished.

Macro Data Calendar: April 20–24

Thursday’s Flash PMI Is the Week’s Most Underrated Number. The April flash PMIs will be the first hard data point showing whether the tariff shock and energy crisis are transmitting into actual business activity contraction. Much remains unknown about the next stages of the trade war, with the potential near- and long-term investment and economic implications likewise unclear. Investors are weighing the potential inflationary impact of tariffs and how consumers will react to higher prices. Continually shifting trade terms also raise questions about how long tariffs will last and at what level, and how companies will adapt to the new operating environment. A PMI print below 48 on manufacturing would be a direct catalyst for Q2 earnings estimate cuts — and those cuts are not currently priced into the market.

The Tariff and Iran Double Bind — Why the Fed Cannot Help

The hardest thing about this market right now is not the volatility — it is the Fed’s paralysis. Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish comments at the Economic Club of Chicago last Wednesday echoed recent Fed official statements, stating that tariff increases have been “significantly larger than anticipated” and that “the same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”

The conflict has echoed the 1970s energy crisis through acute supply shortages, currency volatility, inflation and heightened risks of stagflation and recession. Interest rate reductions were expected to be postponed — or conversely increased — in light of higher inflation caused by supply shortages and speculation. A Fed that cannot cut into a slowing economy is one of the most historically difficult environments for equity markets to navigate. That is the actual backdrop for every trade you make this week — not any one earnings print.

Semiconductors are facing an additional headwind: over the weekend of April 12, the Trump administration exempted many types of electronics from reciprocal tariffs. But the tit-for-tat persisted, as semiconductors will likely be shifted into another tariff bucket in the next month or two. China also raised non-tariff barriers against U.S. agricultural exports while the U.S. restricted shipment of certain Nvidia semiconductors to China without a license. This is the environment Intel, and by extension the entire chip sector, reports into on Thursday.

Sector Playbook: April 20–24

Three Scenarios for April 20–24 — and How to Prepare

Scenario A — Ceasefire Extended or Hormuz Deal Announced Before Tuesday Expiry (Low probability, maximum impact): Oil collapses toward the $75–$80 range. Airlines, industrials, and consumer discretionary rip higher on fuel cost relief. Energy names give back recent gains. Gold pulls back on reduced safe-haven demand. Defense may actually sell the news after the initial move. A pause and sideways phase appears likely until oil supplies normalize — but if the path toward de-escalation remains intact, markets would gravitate back toward the themes that defined performance earlier in the year, with prior leaders reasserting themselves. In this scenario, the rotation will be violent and fast. Know what you own before Tuesday morning.

Scenario B — Ceasefire Expires, Talks Continue Without Deal (Most likely): Oil partially recovers Friday’s drop. Markets open lower Monday and trade in a tight, uncertain range. Earnings beats are absorbed with muted enthusiasm. Guidance is cautious industry-wide. The S&P 500 grinds between 5,100 and 5,350 through Friday. Corporate profits remain the most durable support, with double-digit S&P 500 earnings growth expected to continue — but leadership comes from sectors less exposed to higher energy costs. In this scenario: smaller sizing, defined-risk structures, and sector-specific positioning are the appropriate tools.

Scenario C — Ceasefire Collapses, Conflict Escalates (Tail risk — non-trivial): If the strait remains closed into a second month, traders and analysts expect global energy markets will quickly evolve into a fight for supplies, driving up prices and benefiting buyers able to outbid others. Fuel crunches hitting Asia will start spreading west. Europe is likely to face surging prices to secure cargoes and is at risk of diesel shortages in the coming weeks. In this scenario, energy producers, defense ETFs, and gold are the primary beneficiaries. Equities broadly sell off. Bonds rally as a flight to safety. The dollar strengthens against EM currencies. This is the scenario you hedge against — not necessarily the one you bet on.

The Bottom Line

The week of April 20–24 is one of the highest-information weeks of this year. You will receive simultaneous signals from earnings, macro data, and geopolitics — often pointing in completely different directions on the same day. The discipline required is not picking the right direction. It is knowing which scenario is playing out in real time, sizing for it appropriately, and not mistaking a single session’s move for a durable trend.

The ceasefire expires Tuesday, April 22. The last pre-closure oil barrel reaches its destination Monday, April 21. The first flash PMI of the post-tariff era prints Thursday, April 24. In between, over 100 S&P 500 companies give you their best read on what the next 90 days look like.

Watch the Strait of Hormuz before you look at any chart. Watch the ceasefire expiry before you size into any earnings trade. Everything else flows from those two things this week.

— Editorial Desk