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Thursday is the most crowded central bank day of the quarter. The Swiss National Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank, Norges Bank, and Banxico all announce on September 24, the same morning Xi Jinping arrives in Washington for a state visit. Four decisions, one day, one geopolitical backdrop that could scramble all of them. Three are largely scripted. One is not.

Market Snapshot

• SNB (0.00%): A hold is near-certain. Nomura expects the SNB to keep its rate at 0.00%, noting that inflation has accelerated on energy but core remains low. EUR/CHF is near its highest level since early 2025, so Swiss policymakers may feel it unnecessary to signal an increased willingness to intervene. Watch for any shift in FX intervention language rather than the rate itself. CHF and EWL are in a holding pattern.
• Norges Bank (4.25%): This meeting publishes Monetary Policy Report 3/26, which means updated forecasts and a fresh rate path. MPR 3/26 will be published together with the policy rate decision on 24 September 2026. The June policy rate forecast was just above 4.5% at the end of this year. August data came in cooler and guidance softened. Nomura sees another rate rise in November, as inflation remains sticky. Watch EUR/NOK around the press conference at 10:30 local time.
• Banxico (6.50%): The overnight target rate is 6.50% and has been there since 7 May 2026. Headline inflation is 3.26%, but core sits higher at 3.88%. Citi’s September survey puts the rate at 6.50% through end-2027. The notable detail is Mexico’s 2027 budget, which assumes a policy rate of 6.0%, half a point below today’s. Banxico is unlikely to validate that assumption Thursday. MXN and EWW traders should treat this as a non-event unless statement language shifts toward cuts.

The Live Decision: Riksbank and the SEK

Consensus is in favour of the Riksbank staying on hold at 1.75% on 24 September. That call looks right. August flash inflation came in below expectations, with CPI at 0.30% year-on-year. Markets had priced around a 30% chance of a September move, but this has largely been erased, and Danske now expects the first hike in November, with EUR/SEK under upward pressure.

The SEK reaction Thursday will hinge on what the Riksbank signals next. Rising price pressures in the coming quarters, external factors and a weaker krona could encourage the Riksbank to act pre-emptively, paving the way for a hike in November. SEB believes the bank will signal a 60% chance of a hike at one of the next three meetings. CPIF year-on-year remains above the bank’s own forecast, which will keep policymakers cautious about the inflationary picture. EUR/SEK has been drifting higher since the inflation print. A dovish hold extends that. A hawkish hold compresses it and opens a window for SEK longs.

The Xi Variable

Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit the United States on September 23 to 25, with talks at the White House on September 24 with Donald Trump. This will be Xi’s first state visit to the United States since 2015. The agenda sits alongside talks on artificial intelligence, a trade truce that expires in November, rare earths, fentanyl and detained foreigners. Progress on the trade truce is a risk-on catalyst that pressures safe-haven CHF and supports MXN. A breakdown runs the opposite direction and complicates every currency call on this list.

The Cheat Sheet

• Top Theme: Small open economies setting rates in the immediate wake of the Fed, BoJ, and BoE all moving in the same week.
• Currency to Watch: SEK. The Riksbank’s statement language, not the rate decision itself, moves the krona Thursday.
• Biggest Risk: Xi-Trump talks disappoint, triggering CHF strength and unwinding SEK or MXN positioning mid-session.
• One Thing to Remember: Three of four decisions are fully priced. EUR/SEK will tell you within minutes of the Riksbank release whether traders believe the guidance.