An Alternative “AI Bank” Is Now Available

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act technically expired on September 30, 2026. Vulcan Materials is not worried about that. The reason is sitting in federal accounts: roughly half of IIJA funds have yet to be paid out, and management said on the Q3 call last week that this undeployed capital represents a multi-year tail for aggregate demand regardless of what Congress does next.

That framing matters. A continuing resolution maintains federal spending at current levels and extended authorities for surface transportation programs through December 11, 2026, keeping the public pipeline healthy as Vulcan moves into 2027. States are not waiting for Washington to sort itself out. Management noted that states are increasingly using creative funding tools like public-private partnerships and toll authorities to address deteriorating infrastructure, which insulates Vulcan’s order book from the gaps in federal timing.

On the legislative side, the trajectory points upward. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee advanced the BUILD America 250 Act in May, a five-year surface transportation reauthorization covering highways, transit, safety, freight, and rail that authorizes approximately $580 billion over fiscal years 2027 through 2031. The Senate has not released its own proposal, so a long-term bill before year-end looks unlikely. A continuing resolution bridge, though, keeps the dollars flowing.

For highway projects, 84% of obligated funds are expended within three years of obligation, but some funds take as long as nine years to clear, meaning IIJA commitments will feed into active construction schedules well past 2026. Vulcan’s backlog converts those awards into crushed stone, sand, and gravel shipments over a long lag cycle.

Q3 results confirmed the model holds under pressure. Freight-adjusted aggregates prices rose 5% on a mix-adjusted basis, pushing adjusted EBITDA margin to 32.3%, and management held full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance near $2.4 billion while guiding to mid- to high-single-digit aggregates pricing gains in 2027. Shipments of 62.7 million tons fell 3% year over year, but the volume dip was attributed partly to favorable weather comparisons in the prior-year quarter rather than demand erosion.

Diesel cost is the variable management flagged but did not quantify. Proposed U.S. diesel export restrictions and an energy ceasefire in Ukraine are compressing refiner margins from both ends simultaneously, which matters directly for Vulcan’s haulage and plant operating costs.

The stock jumped nearly 6% on earnings day, which tells you the market read the pricing guide as the lead. Management said data centers have been a strong benefit, and large non-residential projects including SpaceX and the Toyota factory in South Texas are contributing to private-side bookings. That diversification matters because it means Vulcan is not dependent solely on the pace of federal disbursements.

What traders should watch in the final two months of 2026: state letting schedules, diesel cost trajectory, and any Senate movement on the BUILD America 250 Act. Management said a new infrastructure bill is expected to be a priority after the midterm elections, which puts meaningful legislative progress squarely in the Q1 2027 window. The unspent IIJA money is the floor. A successor bill at higher funding levels is the upside that VMC’s 2027 pricing guide is quietly pricing in already.