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September 22, 2026

Bonus Content: The Nasdaq Is Back at a Record. Here Is What Got It There.


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Bonus Article

The Nasdaq Is Back at a Record. Here Is What Got It There.

The Nasdaq Composite closed Monday at 27,122.09, up 2.26% and its first record finish since June. The S&P 500 added 1.49% to 7,764.70, sitting just 0.4% below its own all-time high, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 366 points to 52,048.83 in the best session for all three indexes since early August. The question traders face Tuesday morning is simple: what holds the gain?

Market Snapshot

The rally had two clean tailwinds. The 10-year Treasury yield fell roughly 5 basis points to close near 4.95%, pulling back from the 5.01% level that had weighed on equities all of last week. Brent crude fell about 3.4% to roughly $100.34 per barrel. Oil at that level matters for inflation expectations, and inflation expectations matter for whether the Fed hikes again at the October 27-28 meeting or waits until December.

The VIX closed near 14.87. Communication services and technology led sector performance by a wide margin; energy and basic materials were the session’s laggards, consistent with the crude selloff.

Stocks in Focus

The semiconductor sector carried the index. AMD gained roughly 10% to close at $615.52, pushing its market cap to about $1 trillion for the first time. Intel climbed about 12%, and Arm Holdings surged about 17%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose roughly 4%.

The catalyst was not a chip launch. It was a phone app. Meta’s AI agent Muse launched September 8 and reached No. 1 on the US Apple App Store free chart within about two weeks, driving a reread of AI infrastructure demand. Traders concluded that agentic AI workloads could lean heavily on CPUs for inference, not just Nvidia’s GPUs, which redirected buying toward Intel and AMD. Meta itself gained about 11.4% to close at $741.24. Nvidia gained 2.3%.

Sector Watch

Technology and communication services are leading. The Muse-driven inference thesis gives both sectors a concrete demand story rather than a speculative one. Semiconductor equipment, cloud infrastructure, and names with direct CPU exposure are the logical next tier to watch if the thesis extends. Energy is the short-side story: crude’s reversal snapped its recent run and put pressure on oil producers and refiners.

Catalyst Calendar

  • Today (Sept. 22): The Treasury auctions 2-year notes, scheduled for today on the Treasury tentative auction schedule. With 10-year yields only just retreating from a multiyear high, demand at the short end matters for the broader yield picture and, by extension, growth stock valuations.
  • Wednesday (Sept. 23): S&P Global releases September flash PMIs for manufacturing, services, and composite output at 9:45 a.m. ET. The August composite came in at 56.0. A reading that holds or expands confirms the economy is growing fast enough to give the Fed cover for another hike. A miss reopens the debate about whether the dot plot overestimates how much tightening the economy can absorb.
  • Fed speakers this week: A heavy slate of appearances is scheduled. Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari said Sunday that inflation remains too high. Markets will be listening for any hint that the October 27-28 meeting is live for a second hike.

Technical Radar

The Nasdaq’s record close of 27,122.09 sits only about 28 points above the previous record set in June, and it eased about 62 points off its intraday high. That narrow margin is worth watching: a close back below 27,000 Tuesday would undercut the breakout thesis quickly. For the S&P 500, the 7,764 close puts its all-time high near 7,796, barely overhead. A clean move above that level would confirm a broader breakout. Support on the downside is the 7,600-7,650 zone that capped several bounces this summer.

Risk Radar

The Fed’s September dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expected at least one more rate hike this year, with the median year-end target around 4.125% (one quarter-point above the current range’s midpoint). Morgan Stanley has warned the S&P 500 could fall as much as 7% if energy prices rebound and the 10-year yield holds near 5%. Both conditions nearly materialized last week. One poor inflation reading, one geopolitical flare-up in the Gulf, and Monday’s relief rally becomes the high-water mark rather than the base.

The Cheat Sheet

  • Top Market Theme: AI inference demand is wider than Nvidia alone, and Monday priced that realization into AMD, Intel, and Arm in a single session.
  • Stock to Watch: AMD. Fresh $1 trillion milestone, and the CPU-inference trade is still early.
  • Sector to Watch: Technology, specifically semiconductor names with CPU exposure, as long as yield pressure stays contained.
  • Biggest Risk: Today’s 2-year note auction and Wednesday’s flash PMIs. Strong data or weak auction demand could push yields back toward 5% and test whether this record close has legs.
  • Biggest Opportunity: The S&P 500 is 0.4% from its own all-time high. If yields stay cooperative and PMIs read in line, a second simultaneous record across indexes is on the table this week.
  • One Thing to Remember: The Nasdaq set a record five sessions after a rate hike, not five months. The market is telling you the AI demand story is big enough to absorb tighter policy, until it isn’t. Keep the yield on your screen alongside the index.

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