$29.97 or $0 today

Wednesday evening hands Thursday a heavy agenda. Meta and Tesla both report after the close tonight, joining a heavy earnings day on Thursday that also features Lockheed Martin, Procter & Gamble, Blackstone, Comcast, Norfolk Southern, and Honeywell before the bell. Add a SpaceX lockup of historic size and a labor market data point that could reset rate expectations, and the session opening at 9:30 a.m. Thursday will have more moving parts than any day this week.

The Overnight Catalyst

SpaceX’s blowout Q3 already set the tone. Revenue came in at about $14.6 billion, up 161% year over year, with net income of $4.4 billion reversing a year-ago loss. The Super Intelligence unit generated $7.56 billion, up 830%. The stock surged roughly 10% during Wednesday’s session. But that move now collides with supply: up to 1.3 billion SPCX shares become eligible for sale Thursday under the company’s staggered lockup schedule following the June IPO. A stock trading up 10% on a blowout quarter while up to 1.3 billion newly eligible shares hit the market is a test of conviction, not a free ride.

What Meta and Tesla Set Up

Options priced META for a 7% move in either direction heading into tonight’s print, below the 10-year average of 10.4%, and the stock has exceeded the implied move in 12 of its last 16 reports. Analysts expect roughly $63.2–$63.3 billion in Q3 revenue and about $6.8 in EPS. Any shortfall on AI monetization or a capex figure that continues to pressure free cash flow will land hard, especially with META already 10% off its August record. Tesla follows on the same call window. Consensus sits at $0.45 EPS on about $28.0 billion in revenue, implying an EPS decline versus a year ago. Margin trajectory and any commentary on a potential SpaceX combination are the two variables most likely to move the stock in Thursday’s open.

The Before-Bell Gauntlet

Lockheed Martin lands before the open with expectations around $7.52 EPS on roughly $20.5 billion in revenue. The company’s Q2 release pointed to free cash flow projected to be over $7 billion. Options imply a 3.5% move, but in six of the past eight quarters, the actual move exceeded what options priced, including a double-digit surge in July and a double-digit drop in April. Procter & Gamble follows with Q1 fiscal 2027 consensus of $1.88 EPS on $22.77 billion in revenue; the read-through matters for consumer staples sentiment broadly.

Defense earnings carry extra weight this cycle. Lockheed’s $230 billion backlog and a fresh $24.3 billion Saudi F-35 approval reframe what the revenue line actually means.

The Data Point That Could Override Everything

Thursday’s 8:30 a.m. initial jobless claims print carries a 200K forecast against a 199K prior. In a week with no CPI, no payrolls, and no Fed decision, claims are one of the highest-impact macro items on the calendar. A reading below 195K alongside strong earnings would likely push yields higher and compress rate-cut expectations further, a combination that pressures growth valuations even when the earnings themselves are solid. It is the one number capable of cutting across every other catalyst on the day.

The Cheat Sheet

• Top Theme: Q3 earnings season reaches its highest-density day as AI monetization, defense spending, and consumer resilience all get tested before and after the bell.
• Stock to Watch: SPCX. A confirmed beat already in the price, up to 1.3 billion shares becoming eligible for sale. How it holds will frame risk appetite for the rest of the session.
• Sector to Watch: Technology. Meta’s result determines whether the AI infrastructure spending cycle still has full market support or is starting to bifurcate between builders and beneficiaries.
• Biggest Risk: A Meta miss or heavy capex guidance colliding with the SPCX unlock produces a fast unwind in the stocks that led Wednesday’s Nasdaq rally.
• One Thing to Remember: Thursday is a reaction day, not an information day. The numbers are coming in overnight. The edge is in knowing what you own before 9:30, not chasing the gap.