July 4, 2026
MELI Is Down 32% From Its High
Revenue grew 49%. The stock has not agreed.
First a note from Stansberry Research
Editor’s Note: Financial expert Dr. David Eifrig has guided his readers through just about every market scenario you can imagine: Including the financial crisis of 2008… the COVID-19 crash of 2020… the inflation crisis of 2022 – the worst year for stocks in more than a decade… the volatility we saw in 2023 with the bank failures, and even the tariff turbulence of 2025. But today: Dr. Eifrig warns a strange D.C. plan is underway, and it could send one particular type of investment absolutely soaring.
Dear Reader,
A dramatic story – which started as a wild rumor – is now playing out at the highest levels of finance…
In fact, this plan has all been laid out point-by-point by one of President Trump’s senior advisers.
And even though it’s the most-read story on Bloomberg terminals, a computer that professional investors pay $25,000 per year to access…
Nobody on Main Street seems to be aware of the blindsiding event that’s rushing toward them.
In London, staff at the Bank of England are being forced to work OVERNIGHT to enable the world’s richest people to move their money, according to Bloomberg.
And wealthy investors are loading up their suitcases with precious metals on commercial flights.
Hedge-fund managers are now briefing clients on the potential impact to their wealth, too…
And earlier this year, $2 TRILLION was pulled out of stocks in one week.
Take it from my colleague Dr. David Eifrig, a 40-year stock market veteran:
This is all extremely strange.
He wants to help pull back the curtain for you and your loved ones, too… at no cost.
Click here to watch his new urgent briefing before July 28.
Regards,
Matt Weinschenk
Publisher, Stansberry Research
P.S. Dr. David Eifrig has guided his readers through just about every market scenario you can imagine:
Including the financial crisis of 2008… the COVID-19 crash of 2020… the inflation crisis of 2022 – the worst year for stocks in more than a decade… the volatility we saw in 2023 with the bank failures, and even the tariff turbulence of 2025.
But make no mistake: Dr. Eifrig warns a huge event is underway, and it could send one particular type of investment absolutely soaring.
In his latest update, he lays out exactly how to position yourself.
He’s not talking about AI or crypto…
But if you act now, you have the chance to make 1,000% gains or more.
FEATURED
Sometimes a stock and a business just stop agreeing with each other. Not because something broke. Not because the competition caught up. They just diverge, and you’re left trying to figure out which one is telling the truth.
Right now, MercadoLibre is that stock.
MELI is trading around $1,742 as of early July 2026. That puts it roughly 32% below its 52-week high of $2,548. Down about 13% year to date. And doing all of that while the underlying business just posted its strongest revenue growth rate since Q2 2022, a 49% jump year over year in Q1. Nearly $8.85 billion in a single quarter.
The business is accelerating. The stock is not.
What’s interesting is that the Q1 numbers were genuinely strong on the top line. Revenue of $8.85 billion beat estimates by nearly 6.8%. Gross Merchandise Volume hit $19 billion, up 42% year over year. Total Payment Volume through Mercado Pago reached $87.2 billion, up 50% on a reported basis and 55% on an FX-neutral basis. Those are not the kind of figures you see from a company losing momentum.
Brazil specifically is worth singling out. FX-neutral GMV grew 38% in Q1, up from 35% the quarter before. Items sold jumped 56%. Unit shipping costs fell 17% even as shipment volumes climbed. The credit portfolio grew 87% year over year. Credit card monthly active users were up 68%. Fintech assets under management grew 77%.
The thing that knocked the stock was the earnings per share. EPS came in at $8.23, below most consensus estimates, as operating margins compressed to 6.9%. The company leaned hard into logistics spending, free shipping, credit card expansion, and seller promotions. That cost money. Short-term holders who were expecting better profitability got shaken out.
Management did not apologize for it. CFO Martin de Los Santos was clear that the spending on logistics and fintech, especially the credit card push, is intentional. They are building for market share, not for the next quarter’s profit line.
“Frontier AI” is a point of no return when AI surpasses human intelligence and gains free will.
Elon Musk warns this moment could hit by the end of 2026. According to 60-year Wall Street legend, Marc Chaikin, Frontier AI could soon become the only thing that determines which companies make money and which grind to a halt. That’s why he’s giving away a list of stocks to buy and sell absolutely FREE to help you position your money for a world driven by Frontier AI technology.
Here is what most people skip when they talk about MercadoLibre. It is not one company.
Mercado Libre is the marketplace. Mercado Pago is payments and fintech. Mercado Envios is logistics. Mercado Credito is lending. Mercado Fondo is investment products. Each one is growing on its own. Together they form a flywheel that gets stickier every quarter across a region of 650 million people where e-commerce penetration is still well below North American and Asian levels.
Slight tangent, but it matters: the company committed $4.6 billion in new investment into Mexico in 2026 alone, focused on logistics, technology, and financial services. This is a company that is not playing defense.
On the analyst side, 24 analysts cover the stock with a consensus Buy rating. The average 12-month price target sits around $2,209 to $2,255, which implies roughly 27 to 30% upside from current levels. Benchmark holds a Buy with a $2,380 target. Goldman Sachs has a Buy at $2,100. Barclays maintains an Overweight at $2,300. On the more cautious end, UBS is at Neutral with a $1,750 target and JPMorgan is at Neutral with a $1,900 target.
The risks are not nothing. Currency moves across Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina create real earnings volatility. Margin compression could continue as the investment cycle plays out. Competition in Brazil is real, Amazon has been pushing harder there. And this is now the fourth straight quarter where EPS has come in below expectations, which matters for investor confidence regardless of what the revenue line says.
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But here is where I keep landing. A company growing revenue nearly 50% year over year, expanding a fintech platform across one of the world’s largest underbanked populations, and committing billions in fresh capital to its core markets does not usually stay at a 32% discount to its recent high for long. At some point the price catches up to the business. Or the business slows to meet the price. One of those things tends to happen.
Q2 2026 results are expected around August 3. Whether margins show any early sign of stabilizing will probably be the deciding factor for the next move. That is the number worth watching.
Full breakdown worth your time.
