Silver and gold are crushing all previous profit records…

This is no longer a single bad day. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has shed about 12% across three sessions. The Nasdaq 100 closed Monday at 28,525, confirming a 10% decline from its October 6 peak of 31,224. Overnight, that pressure jumped continents: the Kospi fell 3.6% to 5,648 and the Kosdaq dropped nearly 4%, barely holding the 700 level. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid about 1.1%. US and European futures are lower heading into Tuesday’s open, with the Nasdaq 100 trading around 28,000 and below its 200-day exponential moving average for the first time since March.

Market Snapshot

The AI capex financing question is what is driving this, not demand. Oracle’s $20 billion at-the-market equity program renewed investor doubts about whether Big Tech’s infrastructure spending can generate returns quickly enough to justify its cost. That framing matters: the selloff is concentrated in names most exposed to AI infrastructure spending, not a broad risk-off flush. The S&P 500 is down only 0.5% over the same stretch. Most S&P 500 companies advanced on Monday even as the index dipped.

The VIX has risen with the selling. Treasury yields are sliding on safe-haven buying ahead of Tuesday’s US midterm elections, which adds a second source of caution for any trader thinking about adding exposure before the open.

Stocks in Focus

In Seoul, Samsung Electronics closed at 219,500 won, down 4.15%, and SK Hynix finished at 1,398,000 won, down 5.03%, dropping below the psychologically important 1.4 million won level for the first time in this leg of the selloff. Foreign investors pulled about 1.5 trillion won from the Korean main board in a single session. Taiwan’s benchmark fell 3.6%, with TSMC’s ADR closing Monday at $398.63, off nearly 2% on the day.

TSMC’s ADR move is part of a broader pattern the market has been misreading. TSMC posted a sixth consecutive record profit quarter with margins above guidance even during its 2nm ramp, yet the stock fell anyway.

Nvidia closed around $202, having broken through the $205 support level that had held for weeks. The next meaningful floor sits in the $190 to $200 range. AMD, today’s most direct catalyst, reports Q3 results after the close. The stock is down roughly 7.5% since Monday’s close, trading near $467. Consensus expects earnings of about $1.94 per share on $13.1 billion in revenue, with data center the growth engine and gaming still a drag. Options are pricing a move of roughly ±9% on the earnings reaction. AMD has beaten estimates in each of its last four reports, but guidance language on AI chip shipments and Q4 margins will carry more weight than the headline numbers tonight.

Sector Watch

Semiconductors are the clear epicenter, but the rotation pattern is instructive. Capital has moved into defensives, bonds, and energy: West Texas Intermediate crude has dipped on Iran diplomacy hopes, but the energy sector is outperforming tech sharply. Breadth inside the S&P 500 is actually decent, which supports the read that this is a crowded-AI-trade unwind rather than a macro collapse. The analyst cited in Bloomberg framed it as “rotating away from crowded AI trades rather than abandoning equities altogether.” That characterization matters for traders deciding whether to fade the move or follow it.

Catalyst Calendar

• AMD earnings (today, after close): The most important event of the session. Q4 gross margin guidance and next-gen Instinct GPU shipment timelines will drive the overnight reaction.
• US midterm elections (today): First results arrive as Asian markets open Wednesday. Outcome uncertainty is suppressing risk appetite and could release a relief bid or accelerate selling depending on the result.
• Nvidia earnings (later in November): The next major read on AI chip demand. Every datapoint between now and then will be viewed through that lens.
• September US factory orders (today): Macro context for the broader industrial picture.

Technical Radar

The Nasdaq 100 has key support at 28,000 (psychological) and 27,000, the lows from July and August. A recovery to 28,500 is the first objective for buyers. Resistance sits at 29,300 to 29,500, the prior support zone that flipped on the breakdown. Nvidia: support at $190 to $200, resistance at $210 to $214. A close above $214 would be the first sign the selling is exhausting. AMD: $440 is the level to watch on a negative earnings reaction; a beat with strong guidance could recover the gap to $513. SOX has shed about 17% since its October 1 high. The index is extended to the downside and oversold by most measures, but oversold can stay oversold when the catalyst calendar is uncertain.

Risk Radar

• AMD guidance miss: A weak Q4 outlook tonight could add another leg down to the semiconductor index before Wednesday’s open.
• Election volatility: Midterm results land during Asian trading hours. A contested or unexpected outcome prolongs uncertainty.
• Momentum extension: The SOX is down about 12% in three sessions. That kind of velocity can trigger forced selling from leveraged vehicles, compounding the move.
• Breadth divergence: If the broader S&P 500 starts to follow semis lower rather than holding up, the rotation thesis breaks and the risk profile of the entire market changes.

The Cheat Sheet

Top Market Theme: A concentrated unwind of AI infrastructure trades is pulling the Nasdaq into correction and exporting volatility to every semiconductor-heavy market on the planet.

Stock to Watch: AMD. It is the evening’s key catalyst, already down sharply, with a high implied move and a history of surprising to the upside.

Sector to Watch: Semiconductors. The three-session, about 12% decline in the SOX is the defining move of this correction. Whether it stabilizes today or extends depends almost entirely on AMD after the bell.

Biggest Risk: AMD delivers a revenue beat but cuts gross margin guidance, sending the stock down 9% overnight and dragging the SOX to fresh lows before Wednesday’s open.

Biggest Opportunity: A clean AMD beat with strong Q4 guidance could trigger a short-covering rally in the most oversold names, starting with Nvidia, SK Hynix, and TSMC.

One Thing to Remember: This is the Nasdaq 100’s third correction of 2026. The prior two resolved with rallies to new highs. Whether that pattern holds depends on tonight’s earnings and Wednesday’s election results, but the breadth data suggests this is a sector rotation, not a market breakdown.