November 4, 2026
Bonus Content: ADP and ISM Services Land This Morning
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ADP and ISM Services Land This Morning
Two releases will reset December Fed odds before most traders finish their first coffee. ADP posts at 8:15 a.m. ET; ISM Services follows at 10:00 a.m. The numbers themselves will matter less than what they say about the two inputs the Fed is watching hardest: services input costs and labor demand. Both are running hotter than the Fed wants, and December is already priced accordingly.
Where December Odds Sit Right Now
Tuesday’s JOLTS report did real damage to the hold camp. September job openings surged 333,000 to 7.523 million, and August was revised up to 7.190 million. Quits rose to 3.4 million. Fed funds futures responded: the FatTail RateWatch tool pegged a December hike at 85.2% as of 2:35 p.m. ET on November 3. CME FedWatch sits closer to 80%; Kalshi prices 75%. The range reflects model differences, but the direction is unambiguous.
The Fed’s target range is currently 3.75%–4.00%. A 25-basis-point hike on December 9 would push that to 4.00%–4.25%. Two officials, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, preferred to move at the October meeting but were outvoted. That dissent is now part of the equation.
The 10:00 Number That Actually Moves Markets
September’s ISM Services print landed at 54.9, in line with continued expansion. The headline was fine. What was not fine was buried inside: the prices-paid index jumped to 74.0, its highest reading since July 2022, up 1.4 points from August’s 72.6. Most industries ISM tracks reported higher prices paid; few, if any, reported a decrease. The prices-paid index has stayed above 70 in six of the last seven months.
That number is not part of the headline Services PMI. It is, however, the sub-index many desks watch most closely on services inflation. And October’s reading, out today, is the last services price data the committee will see before December 8-9.
The other sub-index to track: employment. September’s reading came in at 50.1, barely in expansion after three straight months below 50. If October’s employment index pushes higher alongside an elevated prices-paid reading, the case for another hike gets considerably harder to argue against. If employment softens while prices stay hot, that’s a genuinely difficult signal for the Fed.
The ISM sub-index mix is not the only lever on December odds. The 2-year Treasury’s reaction to simultaneous data releases shows how quickly the curve reprices hike probability when prints conflict.
ADP: The Direction Matters More Than the Number
Consensus for October ADP is around 69,000, down from September’s 90,000. The September number itself beat expectations, so the bar for a surprise is real. ADP arrives two days before Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, and a significant beat could move the 2-year Treasury, which closed Monday at 4.59%, up more than 100 basis points year to date. A strong ADP print alongside a hot ISM prices-paid reading would apply maximum pressure to December hike odds and to rate-sensitive equities.
What to Watch
- ISM Services prices paid: Any reading north of 74 reinforces the case for December. A drop toward 70 gives the hold camp something to work with.
- ISM Services employment index: September’s 50.1 barely cleared expansion. A second consecutive contraction here complicates the Fed’s labor-market story even as the demand side stays firm.
- ADP vs. 69K consensus: A beat narrows the window for a soft Friday payrolls read. A miss keeps that window open and could nudge hike odds off current levels.
- 2-year Treasury reaction: The first real-time signal of how bond markets are digesting both prints simultaneously.
The Cheat Sheet
Top Theme: The Fed’s December meeting is almost fully priced for a hike. This morning’s data could either confirm that or introduce the first credible reason to fade it.
Stock to Watch: Regional bank ETFs (KRE) are sensitive to the short end of the curve. A strong ADP and hot ISM prices-paid combination lifts 2-year yields and pressures the group.
Sector to Watch: Rate-sensitive sectors, specifically utilities and REITs, face the most direct pricing risk if both releases come in hawkish.
Biggest Risk: Both prints surprise to the upside simultaneously, cementing December and dragging forward market expectations for further hikes into 2027.
One Thing to Remember: The ISM Services prices-paid reading does not affect the headline PMI. Many desks will skim the headline and miss the number that actually moves December odds. Read the sub-components first.
